FactSet Evening Market Recap
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US equities ended mostly higher this week with strong outperformance in the Russell 2000 and some minor weakness in the Nasdaq. The market navigated a shortened trading week deprived of any meaningful catalysts with most looking to PCE this Friday and Nonfarm payrolls next Friday. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat slightly with consumers noting they were confident inflation will continue to soften, and expect their financial situations to improve over the coming months.
US equities finished higher in uneventful Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 122bps, 86bps, and 51bps respectively. Nothing on the US economic calendar and big event was a well-received auction of $43B in 7Y notes. Spanish headline inflation accelerated in March. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki ramped up warning on potential yen intervention.
US equities finished down in Tuesday trading, selling off in the last half hour of the session after remaining positive but rangebound for most of the day. Thursday marks month- and quarter-end and pension fund rebalancing has been flagged as a potential overhang for equities. February durable-goods orders rose after two consecutive monthly declines; core orders beat though January revised lower.
US equities ended mostly lower in a quiet, rangebound Monday session with modest downside in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after capping off the best weekly gain of the year on Friday. There was a bit of Fedspeak, though nothing shifted the narrative. February new home sales came in a bit weaker than consensus.
US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 posted the best weekly performance this year, underpinned by a big Treasury rally and dovish takeaways from this week's March FOMC meeting. This week's upside was primarily driven by the March FOMC meeting that included the dot plot holding projections for three rate cuts this year and Chair Powell downplaying recent hotter inflation prints. This week saw some solid economic data including March flash manufacturing PMI, which hit the highest level since Jun-22, though services PMI was a bit weaker than expected.
US equities finished higher in Thursday trading. Dovish Fed takeaways continue to underpin risk sentiment, as takeaways are focused on unchanged median dot for three rate cuts in 2024 and Powell's comments suggesting recent inflation data has not changed the Fed's view on the broader disinflation trend. Initial jobless claims came in at 210K vs consensus for 215K and last week's 212K (revised from 209K).
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, rallying after today's FOMC meeting, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 103bps, 89bps, and 125bps respectively. Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Statement reiterated Fed needs additional confidence inflation returning to target before easing. Median 2024 dot in updated SEP unchanged at three rate cuts. However, median dot in 2025 and 2026 each went up ~25 bp. Noted recent data suggest gradual, bumpy disinflation trend remains intact.
US equities ended higher Tuesday at best levels with the S&P locking in a new record closing high. Market processing developments out of NVDA GTC, with Street positive on Blackwell architecture but takeaways fairly technical in nature and noting no big surprises. US economic calendar quiet again today. February housing starts and building permits both beat, rebounding off weather-impacted January print.
US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, though ended off session highs. The AI secular growth theme is the tailwind to start this week, with Google and Apple in talks for Gemini to power AI features on new iPhones, and NVIDIA’s GTC Conference kicking off today. March NAHB homebuilder sentiment rose for the fourth consecutive month to its highest in eight months.
US equities were lower for the week, with the Nasdaq posting its second consecutive weekly drop and the small-cap Russell saw its worst week since the opening of 2024. Treasuries were notably weaker, with yields for most maturities seeing a five-day run higher. There was a big focus on the week's data releases, primarily a hotter-than-expected reading for February core CPI.
US equities ended lower Thursday, though off worst levels, following a mixed session for stocks on Wednesday. Another big rate backup is the overhang on sentiment, particularly as it comes from sticky inflation concerns rather than from a firmer growth backdrop. Headline and core PPI came in hotter than expected, while annualized PPI was at its hottest since September.
US equities ended mixed Wednesday, just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones finishing up 10bps while the S&P500, and Nasdaq closed down 19bps and 54bps respectively. Fairly quiet day from a macro perspective, with no big economic datapoints on the calendar today, attention turning to PPI, Retail Sales tomorrow. Corporate headlines included Dollar Tree Q4 miss and store closures, Pentagon scrapping plans to spend $2.5B on Intel defense grant, and the US House passing a bill that could lead to a force sale or ban of TikTok.
US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading as stocks ended near best levels and more than erased Monday weakness. Momentum factor rallied despite recent scrutiny surrounding stretched positioning/sentiment/valuation. Market shook off another hotter-than-expected core CPI print. Headline February CPI printed in line with consensus for a 0.4% monthly rise, but faster than January. Headline up 3.2% y/y. Core CPI a bit hotter than expected.
US equities ended mostly lower on Monday, off worst levels, in a quiet trading session. The market is playing the waiting game for the CPI report on Tuesday. In macro news, the New York Fed 1Y inflation expectations for February are unchanged m/m at 3%, though the expectations rose at the 3Y and 5Y horizons.
US equities were mostly lower this week with the Nasdaq and Dow lagging, though the Russell 2000 again outperformed. This week's focus was on nonfarm payrolls and Fed Chairman Powell's congressional testimony. Bulls would note employment data and revisions were dovish, while bears would point to select hawkish Fed-speak.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending just off best levels as stocks built on Wednesday's gains. The market is extending Wednesday's bounce into the NFP report tomorrow, while Powell's Congressional testimony mostly a non-event. In macro news, initial claims fell largely in line with expectations.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though ended off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 20bps, 51bps, and 58bps respectively. Powell reiterated likelihood of loosening later this year, though more confidence needed on sustained move towards 2% target. February ADP private payrolls slightly softer than expected. JOLTs job openings down in January from prior month to lowest since October, while quits rate down a tick. Fed's Beige Book also said economic activity increased slightly.
US equities ended lower on Tuesday, a bit off from worst levels. Market on the defensive ahead of Powell tomorrow and NFP on Friday. Tech/growth/momentum weakness the big story, though may be more a function of fatigue (positioning/technicals) rather than fundamentals. ISM services for February came in slightly below consensus, while new orders increased from January.
US equities ended lower Monday, losing strength in the last hour of trading. No big directional drivers in play ahead of Powell and payrolls later this week, as well as the CPI next week. The focus is on Powell's semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
The major averages were mostly higher this week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up for the seventh week in the past eight (and 16th week in the past 18). This week's January Core PCE was in line with expectations, removing an overhang of the Fed's preferred inflation measure coming in hotter than expected. Tech momentum also remained a tailwind amid more AI proliferation optimism.
US equities ended higher Thursday afternoon, near best levels. The market is shaking off this week's previously defensive tone after today's right-in-line January PCE price inflation report. Initial and continuing jobless claims printed a bit higher than consensus.
US equities ended lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 6bps, 17bps, and 55bps respectively. Very quiet session with nothing specific behind the pullback. First revision of Q4 GDP marked down to 3.2% pace; Personal consumption marked up to 3.0%; Q4 GDP price index marked up to 1.6%; and Q4 core PCE up to 2.1%. Busy in terms of Fedspeak but not much new, with governors reiterating patience, but cuts likely later this year.
US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday, off worst levels though trading fairly rangebound. Market still struggling for direction ahead of core PCE inflation on Thursday and ISM manufacturing on Friday. January durable goods down sharply on the headline (though likely impact from weak Boeing orders). Core capital-goods orders also a bit light. Elsewhere, February consumer confidence came in below consensus, and January was revised lower; labor-market differential also narrowed.
US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels though downside modest. Nothing really incremental from a narrative perspective ahead of some more meaningful potential macro catalysts late in the week. In macro news, today's record $63B 2Y auction saw a slight tail, the weakest bid-to-cover since March 2023 while the $61B 5Y auction tailed by 0.8bp.
US equities were mostly higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up for the 15th time in the past 17 weeks. There were a number of moving pieces this week, though the key bullish narrative was AI optimism after Nvidia earnings. Fedspeak continued to lean hawkish, though officials including Governor Waller and New York's Williams continue to say they still expect cuts this year.
US equities ended higher and near best levels in Thursday trading, with S&P logging a new all-time high and the Nasdaq having its best session in more than a year. In macro news, initial jobless claims came in below consensus, the lowest since early January and continuing claims was also light of forecasts. Today’s risk-on session was driven by the latest bout of AI enthusiasm following another blowout quarter and guidance from NVIDIA, which finished up +15.3%.
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday afternoon trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 both finishing up 13bps while the Nasdaq closed down 32bps. Latest FOMC minutes noted most officials flagged the risks of cutting rates too early, though some policymakers pointed to downside risks of maintaining higher rates for too long. Fed’s Governor Bowman said time for lower rates is certainly not now, while Richmond's Barkin said question now is how long disinflation will take. Market now focused on nVidia earnings after the close.
US equities finished lower in fairly quiet Tuesday trading, though the equal-weight S&P held up better than the official index. Small-caps more than erased last week's gains. Today saw a lot of drag from NVDA ahead of its earnings, a dynamic that weighed on the broad semi space. Came after market leaned risk-off last week with the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints driving another hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations. Fairly quiet week ahead form a macro perspective though FOMC minutes are out on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday brings a flurry of Fedspeak.
US equities ended mostly higher this week with the Russell 2000 again outperforming the S&P despite over 4% drawdown on Tuesday following hotter CPI print. Treasuries were weaker with some curve flattening. Dollar index was slightly up the greenback having strong performance on the yen cross. This week's focus was on CPI and PPI readings coming in hotter than expected lending support for the "higher for longer" Fed rate cut narrative and prompting some risk-off sentiment.
US equities ended higher Thursday, just off best levels. The bounce following Tuesday's CPI drawdown has been chalked up to several dynamics, including the potential "January effect" on the print, somewhat dovish Fedspeak, a still favorable setup surrounding Fed pivot and resilient US growth backdrop, stable 2024 consensus earnings estimates amid heightened focus on operational efficiency, and an intact disinflation narrative. It's been a huge day of economic releases, including January retail sales, which dropped more than expected, and December’s was revised lower.
