Spoiler alert: We’re not in a recession. But maybe one is on the way.

That debate reignited last week after the yield curve inverted, again. As we’ve talked about on the show, inverted yield curves can be a warning sign.

“A lot of this is psychological. It’s a lot about what you think is going on, not necessarily what is going on,” said Todd Knoop, professor of economics at Cornell College and author of “Business Cycle Economics: Understanding Recessions and Depressions From Boom to Bust.”

While the National Bureau of Economic Research has the final word on whether we’re in a recession, today we’re asking: If recessions are a regular part of the economy, why are they so hard to predict? Knoop breaks it down. Plus, we dig into the psychology of recessions and why they could become self-fulling prophecies.

In the News Fix, Kai gives a lesson in how to decode the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Plus, Kimberly gets an up-close look at the ongoing supply chain crisis.

And for this week’s answer to the Make Me Smart question, a listener explains what potty training her kids taught her about creating new habits.

Here’s everything we talked about today:

• “The 8 economists who decide if the U.S. is in a recession” from The Washington Post


• “Another Yield Curve Inversion Rings Recession Alarm Bells” from The New York Times


• “GDP report shows U.S. economy grew 2.6% in the third quarter, but recession fears loom” from The Washington Post


• “Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path” from The Wall Street Journal


• “Mississippi River has dropped to record-low levels amid severe drought” from CNN


• “America Is Facing a Dramatic Diesel Shortage That Could Get Even Worse” from Business Insider

Join us for tomorrow for Whaddaya Wanna Know Wednesday. If you have a question you’d like the hosts to answer in a future episode, leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART or email makemesmart@marketplace.org.