(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2023 Retraice, Inc.)
Re102: AI For What
retraice.com
Well-formed goals in the computer control game.
Kurzweil and all that; our countdown clocks to 2029 and 2042; machines can learn whatever we can, probably; systems and papers to study; reasons to learn or pay attention to AI; the purpose of Retraice; a more formal represenation of the player state change problem; moonshots for 2023 and 2024.
Air date: Saturday, 31st Dec. 2022, 2:00 PM Eastern/US.
Kurzweil, 2029 and 2042
Kurzweil: "With both the hardware and software needed to fully emulate human intelligence, we can expect computers to pass the Turing test, indicating intelligence indistinguishable from that of biological humans, by the end of the 2020s."^1 He also predicts the `singularity': "I set the date for the Singularity--representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability--as 2045."^2 I recall hearing him, some years later, update that to 2042, but I can't find a citation of it. The closest thing is this: "As this book is being written, the country is debating changing the Social Security program based on projections that go out to 2042, approximately the time frame I've estimated for the Singularity."^3
Also mentioned during the livestream:
o https://lexfridman.com/ray-kurzweil/; o Kurzweil (1990); o Kurzweil (1999); o Kurzweil (2005); o Sam Harris calling Kurzweil a carnival barker: Joe Rogan Experience #804, at about 11:00.; o On Vernor Vinge, see Russell & Norvig (2020) p. 12; o Bill Joy on Kurzweil: Why the Future Doesn't Need Us, Wired, Apr 1st, 2000; o Kevin Kelly on Kurzweil: Kevin Kelly on Soft Singularity and Inevitable Tech Advances, Newsweek 6/2/16; o Yudkowsky on Kurzweil: Yudkowsky (2013) pp. 19-20;
More thoughts on learning AI
AIMA4e p. 652: If you can learn it, it can be learned.
Running out of time: Robots coming, death coming.
A `player' can put to good use: DALL·E 2, AlphaZero, AlphaCode, GPTs, etc.
Papers to study: well-formed problems and their solutions:
* Ideas that Changed the Future (book)
* Hinton paper
* AlphaGo (and movie?)
* AlphaZero
* AlphaFold
* Attention is all you need
* Reward is enough
* GPT-2
* GPT-3
* InstructGPT
What are the purposes of learning AI?
Re63, Retraice (2022/11/27).
What is the purpose of Retraice?
* FindTFtMtFBttPaMtCKaMbTests (find the fundamentals that make the future better than the past and make them common knowledge as measured by tests);
* Sell value to customers;^4
* Build an economically viable org for overcoming humanity's weaknesses in trustworthy public communication at scale (think Lippmann (1920), e.g. pp. 38-39), with style;
+ Being a player in the CC game is a prereq;
+ Expert in 5 years: 20k hrs, 11hrs per day.
What is our problem, to which math, code and AIMA4e are part of the solution?
Our goal is to change state from outsider-non-player to player in the computer control game.^5
With properly applied abstraction (AIMA4e p. 66), see (e.g.) Re90 p. 2 for problem formalization...
* state space: players in the computer control game, non-players;
* initial state: non-player;
* goal state: player;
* actions: lists of actions available at each state; Are actions based `power' phenomena?^6
* transition model: action1 on state1 yields state2;
* cost function: cost of applying action1 to state1; also consider evaluation function, heuristic, and objective function (see `purpose' above).
auto
Moonshots
* AI degree in 2023?
E. O. Wilson: "The real problem of humanity is the following: we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology."^7
* AI doct-or in 2024?
* Industry needs (Hacker News jobs, LinkedIn ...);
* University curricula (Harvard, Stanford, MIT, CMU, Ox-bridge, UofM);
* Project orientation (Retraice needs; AIMA exercises).
_
References
Crawford, K. (2021). Atlas of AI: Power, Politics, and the Planetary Costs of Artificial Intelligence. Yale University Press. ISBN: 978-0300209570. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780300209570
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780300209570
https://lccn.loc.gov/2020947842
Ferguson, N. (2017). The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook. Penguin. ISBN: 978-0735222915. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0735222915
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0735222915
https://lccn.loc.gov/2018418429
Kurzweil, R. (1990). The Age of Intelligent Machines. MIT Press. ISBN: 0262111217. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0262111217
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0262111217
https://lccn.loc.gov/89013606
Kurzweil, R. (1999). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. Penguin Books. ISBN: 0140282025. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0140282025
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0140282025
https://lccn.loc.gov/98038804
Kurzweil, R. (2005). The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Penguin. ISBN: 978-0143037880. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0143037880
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0143037880
https://lccn.loc.gov/2004061231
Lee, K.-F. (2018). AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. ISBN: 978-1328546395. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328546395
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328546395
https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9781328546395
Lippmann, W. (1920). Liberty and the News. Harcourt, Brace and Howe (Leopold Reprint). No ISBN. eBook and searches:
https://books.google.com/books?id=Df-SzcLRcAICRetrieved 24th Feb. 2022.
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Liberty+and+the+News+Lippmann
https://www.google.com/search?q=liberty+and+the+news+lippmann
https://lccn.loc.gov/20004814
Retraice (2022/10/28). Re33: Outsiders, Power and Waste. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re33Retrieved 2nd Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/02). Re38: Follow up to `Re33: Outsiders, Power and Waste'. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re38Retrieved 5th Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/07). Re43: The Midterms -- Part 1. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re43Retrieved 9th Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/16). Re52: Big Questions About AI. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re52Retrieved 17th Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/17). Re53: Big Questions About Strategic Intelligence. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re53Retrieved 18th Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/18). Re54: Implications and Endgames. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re54Retrieved 19th Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/19). Re55: The Computer Control Game. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re55Retrieved 20th Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/20). Re56: A Valuable Brick: `Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach' 4th ed. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re56Retrieved 21st Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/27). Re63: Seventeen Reasons to Learn AI. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re63Retrieved Monday Nov. 2022.
Russell, B. (1938). Power: A New Social Analysis. Routledge. ISBN: 0415094569. First published in 1938. This ed. 1993. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0415094569
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0415094569
https://lccn.loc.gov/38027828
Russell, S., & Norvig, P. (2020). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Pearson, 4th ed. ISBN: 978-0134610993. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0134610993
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0134610993
https://lccn.loc.gov/2019047498
Wrong, D. H. (1988). Power: Its Forms, Bases, and Uses. Univ of Chicago Press. ISBN: 0226910679. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0226910679
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0226910679
https://lccn.loc.gov/88021594
Yudkowsky, E. (2013). Intelligence explosion microeconomics. Machine Intelligence Research Institute. Technical report 2013-1.
https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdfRetrieved ca. 9th Dec. 2018.
Footnotes
^1 Kurzweil (2005) p. 25. He mentions 2029 multiple times in the book after that sentence.
^2 Kurzweil (2005) p. 136.
^3 Kurzweil (2005) p 97.
^4 Mentioned off-hand: Modern Money Mechanics, published between at least 1968 and 1994 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
^5 Retraice (2022/11/16); Retraice (2022/11/17); Retraice (2022/11/18); Retraice (2022/11/19); Retraice (2022/11/20).
^6 See Retraice (2022/11/07) and Retraice (2022/11/16) on the Banzhaf power index. Other relevant sources include: Retraice (2022/10/28); Retraice (2022/11/02); Crawford (2021); Lee (2018); Ferguson (2017); Wrong (1988); Russell (1938).
^7 oxfordreference.com citing a 2009 debate.
