Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news all eyes are on China to see if they pull the trigger on their old stimulus playbook again.

But first this week, the focal point in the United States will revolve around the PCE price indexes, and data on personal income and spending. Other key data include durable goods orders, their final Q4 GDP growth reading, a key consumer confidence survey, and housing market indicators such as new and pending home sales.

It will be a busy week in Japan with BoJ minutes, and data on their unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales, and housing starts. It will be a quieter week for Chinese economic releases but it will include data on industrial profits. And markets will pay close attention to potential stimulus announcements and how authorities will let the yuan’s price shift. In Australia, February’s inflation rate is expected on Wednesday and a rise is expected, inflation expectation survey data may come in before that, while markets also await the Westpac consumer confidence survey results.

And staying in Australia, there is plenty of evidence their housing market is back on a roll with an active auction market this past weekend and sales volumes high.Prices seem to be rising. Behind it all is a shortage of housing as their inward migration levels rise fast.

Meanwhile the Australian central bank released its half-yearly Financial Stability Report on Friday and it concluded that while conditions will remain challenging for many households and businesses there this year, "strong conditions in the labour market, the large savings buffers accumulated by many borrowers during the pandemic and rising housing prices are helping households to adapt." The Australian financial system has a high level of resilience and is well positioned to continue to support the economy, they say.

In China, incoming foreign direct investment fell more than -19% in February from a year ago, the largest fall since the GFC and far more than in the early stages of the pandemic. Recent 'legal' changes and the rise of the MSS in the Middle Kingdom is making it too tough to operate there. The trade disengagement underway isn't ending. Only US$14.3 bln arrived as investment in February about half the stunted levels on one and two years ago.

Meanwhile, China is making a concerted effort to qualify for the CPTPP trade group with new 'negative list for cross-border trade in services' management. "We have proactively aligned our policies and legislation with the CPTPP rules in relevant areas and are well-prepared for market access offers in goods trade, trade in services and investment," a spokesperson said over the weekend.

The recent visits by Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi to both New Zealand and Australia in an unusual 'charm offensive' by the usually prickly Wolf Warrior needs to be seen in the light of this CPTPP push.

In Japan, inflation is finally embedding there. It's been a long slog to get out of deflation. Their inflation rate climbed to 2.8% in February from 2.2% in the prior month, the highest figure since last November. It has been over 2% since March 2022.

Across the Pacific, although they eased in January Canadian retail sales rose in February according to an early estimate. But both shifts are minor. Hesitating car sales are behind the lackluster results.

Across the Atlantic, German companies are gaining confidence, and rather quicker now. Sentiment for Europe's largest economy reached its highest point since June 2023, fuelled by anticipations of potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and a gradual easing of inflationary pressures. But German consumer sentiment remains stick at low levels, generally unchanged since May 2022.

The UST 10yr yield will today at 4.20% and down -2 bps from this time Saturday, and -11 bps from a week ago. 

The price of gold will start today firmer by +US$6 from Saturday at US$2165/oz. But that is little different to week-ago levels.

Oil prices have stayed at US$80.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still at US$85/bbl. These levels are also unchanged in a week.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at just under 59.9 USc and marginally lower that this time Saturday. A week ago it was at 60.9 USc so a -1c fall since then. And it is the first time in four months since we have been below 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are marginally firmer at just over at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we are still just on 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.3 and down -60 bps in a week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,430 and up +2.9% from this time Saturday. A week ago this price was US$68,378 so a -4.3% fall since then, Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.