Wednesday 10th August 2022

The long-awaited US CPI numbers are out today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril most attention will be paid to the core reading, which excludes energy and food, the two factors which the Fed can have less influence over. If the core reading rises it shows the Fed has more work to do and that will only exacerbate recession fears. On that, we’ve seen the 2-10 yield spread falling ever lower to levels normally only ever seen ahead of recessions. China’s CPI and PPI reads will also be of interest today. There’s also discussion on today’s podcast on the NAB Business Survey yesterday – how can business indicators be so strong, whilst consumer sentiment is falling?