Friday 2nd September 2022

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We know the world is in an awkward place, but we keep getting positive data reads, like a strong manufacturing ISM from the US, retail sales picking up in Germany, UK house prices still strong – all the things central banks don’t really want to hear right now. So what happens if non-farms payrolls in the US tonight shows a labour market that isn’t showing any signs of weakening? NAB’s Ken Crompton reckons a soft read will cause more of a fall in bond yields than the response to a stronger set of numbers. It’ll be an asymmetric response, he says.