Widespread showers/ storms will bring the threat of severe weather
and flash flooding from the Southern Plains eastward through the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys Monday...

Another Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the Southern High Plains
Monday.Advancing storm system will bring increasing showers and storm chances
to much of the eastern U.S. Tuesday, with another risk of severe weather
in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic.Unsettled weather in the West, with lower elevation rain and higherelevation snow, continues Sunday night but will taper off through the dayMonday.

A storm system passing through the central and eastern U.S. will bring the
threat of severe weather and flash flooding as well a risk of fire weather
over the next couple of days. A deep, energetic upper-level trough over
the West will begin to shift eastward over the Plains Sunday night into
Monday. Increased height falls will help to deepen/organize an area of low
pressure in the lee of the Rockies over the Central Plains, with increased
flow helping to reinforce a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending
eastward through the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and a dryline
extending southward through the Southern Plains, with a cold front
approaching from the west through the Southern Rockies/High Plains.
Showers and storms will first expand in coverage Sunday night along the
quasi-stationary boundary through the Middle Mississippi Valley eastward
into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic as moisture advecting northward from
the gulf continues to pool along the boundary. Enough shear will be
present that a few storms may produce some large hail from northern
Missouri eastward through central Illinois/Indiana through Sunday evening,
with a Slight Risk of Severe Weather (level 2/5) in place from the Storm
Prediction Center. An isolated threat for flash flooding will exist here
as well, extending eastward into the Upper Ohio Valley, as heavy rain may
have the tendency to repeat over areas as storms run parallel to the
boundary.

Another day of return flow from the Gulf as well as the arrival of the
upper-level trough from the west on Monday will bring a much broader area
of showers and thunderstorms along the east-west boundary as well as
southward along the dryline through the Central/Southern Plains. Some
supercells are expected to develop along the boundary from southern
Missouri west through southeastern Kansas and southward along the dryline
into central Oklahoma by late afternoon/early evening in the presence of
increasing buoyancy and upper-level shear. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather for the chance of
very large hail as well as damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some more
isolated storms will be possible further south into northern Texas, with a
Slight Risk in place. A Slight Risk also extends eastward through the Ohio
Valley where some isolated daytime storms and the arrival of storms
growing upscale upstream over the Middle Mississippi Valley/Plains will
bring the threat of damaging winds, as well as large hail and a few
tornadoes.  By evening, increasing storm coverage and the potential for
upscale growth into an organized complex of storms, as well as the
tendency for storms to move parallel to the frontal boundary, will lead to
a higher chance of locally heavy rainfall totals and some scattered flash
flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place.
In addition to the threat of severe weather and flash flooding, very
strong winds upwards of 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph,
combined with very dry conditions behind the dryline over portions of the
Southern High Plains have prompted another Critical Risk of Fire Weather
(level 2/3) .