Guests describe this year as "one of the best!" noting that New York is coming back, despite the 421a kibosh on new construction; Westchester/Fairfield County-pockets of opportunity; free market/market rate properties are doing well; condos are returning to the market; private money is coming back to New York; land prices have rebounded. Challenges: the expense of C & D office market conversions, retail, hospitality and the impact of unions.
Discussing the future, seeking opportunities and new family leadership, Josh Muss looks at Manhattan office space, transportation, hospitality and jobs, describing New York City as the center of technology, medicine, education, culture, student life, declaring "there's always a job in NYC, especially for young people."
With various sources available to finance real estate: traditional lending, alternative lending and a membership-based brokerage service, guests discuss the differences and similarities of their industry and the importance of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loans.
Historic One Times Square, where millions come to celebrate New Year's Eve, has been for many years - an empty shell! The building is experiencing a multi-million dollar redevelopment, benefitting the area and creating a "go-to" for tourists. Guests discussed the living / business opportunities in the Hamptons, increasingly a year-round community and Suffolk County, whose attractive tax rates and support of local leaders, is of interest to developers.
Bankers agree that their focus is on support of their clients and sponsors, as they discuss a slow-down in 2022 markets, as rising interest rates - low for so long - question what real estate assets will provide lower risks to the investor. Guests comment on the greater risk in the C and D office market, some risks to multi-family and industrial assets, and their interest in limited service hotels and neighborhood retail.
Guests are optimistic! New capital and foreign reinvestments are returning to New York; rents have stayed strong in Brooklyn; commercial projects are doing well; and smaller projects in the boroughs are booming. Guests discuss buyers coming into New York with "long-term" commitments, as an example of their confidence in New York's future.
It's taken a long time for Inwood, the northern most neighborhood in New York City to be open to development. As rezoning and court cases have been settled, guests discuss development that the Inwood community will experience: new parks, libraries, affordable and market rate housing, additional retail, supermarkets through the Fresh Program and community space.
Guests discuss the Rockaways - a hidden gem - and the areas' long journey from an urban wasteland of multi acres of vacant land, through rezoning, mapping to rental apartments, two-family homes, shopping center and a YMCA, along with new development centers of affordable housing and the "bungalow," for entry-level and second home buyers, and more, all designed to encourage community living.
Guests describe Connecticut's outlook as increasingly pro business: "heads'n'meds, with great universities, bio-tech research, medical facilities; the development rebound in Eastern Fairfield County: housing, financial services, medicine. Discussing future challenges: guests listed interest rates, keeping buildings fully rented, tenants seeking smaller office space, as employees continue to work from home, and the difficulty in financing retail and office projects.
Lots of things are happening in Westchester! After a decade of no/slow development, the County is experiencing growth in multi family development, an increase in major hospitals, and other diversified expansion. Suburban office occupancy is now close to 75%; migration to the suburbs has encouraged residential development in close-to-the-city, Westchester and Stamford. Guests discuss New Rochelle, Yonkers, Port Chester and Affordable Housing.
Considering the times we live in - 2021 and early 2022 were excellent years for the investment sales business. War in Ukraine, inflation, rising interest rates have impacted the industry. Guests agree: the world is shifting. Rental markets are doing well; land sales are active; private clients are buying rather than large institutional buyers. The C & D office market is very tough-but attractive. All are looking for government partnerships to significantly increase the supply of housing on the market.
Changing jobs during a pandemic can be risky. Guests discuss their changes, from retail leasing to mortgage broker, from accountant to banker, and challenges to the future of their industry. As restrictions are relaxed, guests are optimistic about retail, the Long Island market, Gowanus, Harlem, the economy coming back, and the returning to the office.
Real estate developers and bankers discuss successful projects currently being developed on Long Island. With City endorsement, new projects are in construction after remaining vacant for 40 years - Long Beach - rentals and condos; Westbury - luxury condos and rentals - upgraded amenities, supporting a no maintenance life style. Banker discussed industrial properties, senior living, transit-oriented projects and repositioning of assets.
Hoping that the years-long effort to rezone the Gowanus is coming to fruition, guests describe their commitment to the Gowanus Canal, and their views of the location as the focus of development in Kings County, creating market rate units, affordable to low-income and working-class families, mixed use commercial, industrial space, schools, spurring business and job growth.
Sports betting, in New Jersey, a thriving billion dollar business, is the third largest business of its kind, on the globe!! To date, 30 states, including New York, allow sports betting. New Jersey's tax rates of 8% to 15% are discussed as reasonable compared with New York's extraordinary 51% on transactions. Guests discuss Esports , brick & mortar casinos, gambling habits and the industry's role in addressing responsible gambling.
The sale of medical and recreational cannabis is legal in New Jersey. Considering legal cannabis as a social equity business, an opportunity for ownership and employment for low income entrepreneurs, guests discuss the challenges to all who may be interested in this enterprise: licensing, communities - welcoming and not welcoming - the trade to their communities, the extraordinary difficulty in banking, and cumbersome tax structures.
Guests discuss New Jersey's Gold Coast and the housing boom in Hoboken and Jersey City, continuing in Journal Square and the Cliffs. While demand is high, supply of residential properties is low, especially of Affordable Housing as municipalities are slow to approve new projects. Building support of Affordable Housing in volume is limited to the highly competitive and limited supply of federal tax credits. Greater support is needed. Senior housing, malls, walkable-downtown development is reviewed.
The Garment Center - convenient to transportation - is working its way westward, from 42nd Street to about 34th Street - attracting tenants to the area's magnificent Art Deco and steel and glass buildings, to the popular Bryant Park, and to relative bargain rents. The area is trending upward; on a modified basis, people are returning to work, amenities are being enlarged and improved.
Despite the challenges associated with multi family real estate, a regulated business in New York, guests are positive about New York "coming back strong," and in investing in this interesting asset class. Developers discuss an extension or new 421a program, vital to New York's future, Independent, Assisted Living and Senior Housing. All support the conversion of hotels to rentals - acknowledging that it was "easier said than done!"
Celebrating a new year, a new administration, guests anticipate a good year for residential development, citing capital available for public/private partnerships to develop affordable housing. Guests discuss the tax credit issue of the successful Affordable New York Program-421a, land acquisition and pros and cons of areas considered for development: Harlem, Coney Island, Gowanus, East New York and more.
Business leaders: a realtor, bankers and a tax expert, consider "where we're going in 2022!" Bankers see another good year in financial services, but are a bit uneasy with acquisitions and real estate investments. Guests discuss the increase in bank mergers, tax legislation, the future of 1031s, interest rates and inflation. Careers and opportunities in banking, accounting and finance are explored.
Considering the future - a new year, new administration - guests foresee an aggressive continuation of bank mergers as opportunities to extend their footprint in the market. Bankers discuss the effects of LIBOR, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac and interest rates, rent stabilized, multi-family buildings, cannabis shops, and vacancies and downward rents in New York's high rent areas.
Consulting guests and his Crystal Ball, Michael Stoler determines that "retail is booming." Food and beverage wellness concepts, wellness brands and services are coming to New York, some to integrated commercial space with food halls, fitness establishments and more. As business improves, foreign investors, new brands are looking to return or enter NYC's markets. SoHo, Broadway, brick & mortar businesses, repurposing malls and shopping centers - all discussed.
John Catsimatidis, optimistic and enthusiastic about New York's future strongly believes in "spreading the risk" and diversified investments. Guest discusses various real estate asset classes: retail vs. condo, the grocery business and unions, the industrial market, bio-sciences and Florida.
Developers, owners, bankers - very cautious when considering new hotel construction in New York City, describing the price of land, availability of supplies and hard-to-come-by labor. Guests discuss the popularity of limited service hotels versus conventional establishments. Financing is hard to get as the banks' hotel portfolios are still under stress.
Guests discuss opportunities for commercial real estate in the New York Metro area and in northeast Florida, particularly the just under A-quality industrial and multi-family classes in NE Florida. Others focus on condos and risk-adjusted return investments in condo inventory. Also reviewed: the return of foreign investors; New Jersey and Westchester, commutable to New York; senior and affordable housing; technology and life science - long-term to success but important to New York's future.
Guests representing real estate asset classes and public accounting discuss aspects of the hospitality industry incorporated into the office market. In addition to renovated lobbies, clients look for amenities not usually seen in commercial buildings. Also discussed, residential and mixed-use properties in emerging markets in Brooklyn and Queens.
Guests discuss the ups and downs of the New York office market. An encouraging uptick in some portfolios is due to the number of employees returning to the office. Leasing and rents remain an issue of location and supply vs. demand. Newer quality buildings are most in demand; question is - what is the future of obsolete buildings? Co-working spaces, flexibility leasing, clustering, zoning - all considered.
Guests comment: It's a buyer's market OR a seller's market - depending on where you are and what you have to sell! Condos are attracting parents buying for their children, who are moving east; Coops are less attractive as Boards can be difficult to deal with, and Townhouses appeal to families, as these facilities provide more space and more privacy. Brooklyn and Queens markets have been an alternative to Manhattan; Staten Island is difficult to develop, and the Bronx provides homes to renters.