Colonel Mark Cancian is a retired Marine with over 30 years of active and reserve service. He is a Senior Advisor for the Center for Strategic & International Studies. In this episode he discusses the results of a war game that simulated a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The Ukraine conflict and the conflict between Israel and Hamas. 

Col Mark Cancian https://www.csis.org/people/mark-f-cancian 

War Game - https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan 

Coping with Surprise - Great Power Conflicts https://www.csis.org/analysis/coping-surprise-great-power-conflicts

Tradeoffs Between Israel - Taiwan - Ukraine :https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-united-states-equip-israel-while-simultaneously-equipping-ukraine-and-taiwan

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Background

03:45 Reasons for Conducting the War Games

06:20 Structure and Execution of the War Game

08:17 Choice of Year for the Invasion Scenario

09:46 Likely Scenario of the Chinese Invasion

13:08 Assumptions about Military Capabilities

15:53 Importance of Dispersing Forces and Hardening Shelters

19:53 Outcome of the War Game

21:23 Recommendations and Insights

23:01 No Ukraine Option for Taiwan

26:48 Civilian Impact and Scenarios

29:10 Challenges of Crossing the Taiwan Strait

29:39 Chinese Amphibious Operations and Logistics Challenges

30:36 Parallels Between Ukraine and China

31:35 The Reality of Unexpected Military Actions

32:35 Lessons from the War in Ukraine

33:34 Adaptation in Warfare

35:00 Impact of Air Defenses and Naval Warfare in Ukraine

36:28 Role of Drones in the Conflict

39:24 Challenges of Introducing New Technologies

40:20 Limitations of F-16s in Ukraine

45:37 Supporting Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan

52:48 Supporting Allies in Times of Conflict

56:16 Managing Global Commitments

59:39 Threats of a Power Vacuum and Chinese Influence

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